Saturday, June 13, 2009

Iran

So Iran is a bit of a mess currently.

The NY Times and Washington Post are both reporting on riots etc in the wake of a hotly contested presidential election that Iranians and international observers alike are calling stolen.

Juan Cole, writing at Salon, has the definitive (for now), run down:

The primary challenger to incumbent Ahmadinejad, former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Moussavi, was widely thought to have a number of crucial constituencies behind him. Urban youth and women, who had elected a reformist president in 1997 and 2001, showed enthusiasm for Moussavi. He also showed an ability to bring out big crowds in his native Azerbaijan, where a Turkic language, Azeri, is spoken rather than Persian. (Azeris constitute about a third of the Iranian population.) It was expected that if the turnout was large, that would help Moussavi.

But not only did Iran's Electoral Commission announce that Ahmadinejad had won almost two-thirds of the general vote, it also gave him big majorities in major cities such as Tehran and Tabriz (the latter is the capital of Azerbaijan). These results seemed unbelievable not only to Moussavi supporters but to many professional Iran observers. Although candidates in Iran's presidential elections are closely vetted, and only four out of hundreds of applicants were allowed to run this time, once the candidates were certified the elections have been relatively free and fair in the past. If proved true, electoral fraud on the scale being charged by Ahmadinejad's rivals risks further undermining the legitimacy of the regime in the eyes of the public.
He goes on to point out that little was actually at stake in the elections, especially as concerns foreign policy since Iran's supreme leader holds all actual power.

(More from Cole on his blog)

The BBC also has coverage including video of protests.

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